Nba Teaser Odds
NBA Teasers: Any Value?
by Trevor Whenham
The NBA Las Vegas Odds are listed in order of rotation and those numbers are generated and produced by the sportsbooks. Above each matchup and rotation is the Time of the game, which is subject to change. All game times are Eastern Standard Time. One of the best features on the NBA Vegas Odds is the Open Line. Game Time Team » Teaser Odds Expected ROI Sportsbook; 07:05 PM ET Wizards » Tease to -3.0: 1.33%: 5Dimes: 10:35 PM ET 76ers » Tease to -2.0-3.00%: 5Dimes. NBA teasers are one of the few sports where these types of bets are utilized besides pro and college football. The most common points available in NBA teasers are 4, 4.5, and 5 with some books offering 7 points. You can apply these points on anywhere from 2 to 14 games with each bet you add the payout odds increasing.
Are you interested in betting teasers in the NBA? You need to ask yourself a simple question - do you find betting teasers fun? If you do, and if you bet on sports largely to have fun, then betting teasers is a good idea for you. If, on the other hand, your goal is long-term profit and minimized house edge then you should probably avoid teasers in all but unique and specific situations. Don't believe me? Let's have a look.
First, what is a teaser? It's a bet in which you take two or more teams and add a set amount of points to the lines of each team. In the NBA the most common teasers are 4.5, 5, and 5.5 points, with both higher and lower point totals available from some betting shops. Let's say you liked the Lakers, who were favored by six, and Cleveland, who were two point underdogs. If you were to bet a 4.5-point teaser then those lines would become Los Angeles -1.5 and Cleveland +6.5. You bet both games on one ticket, and both results have to occur as you need them to in order for you to receive a payout on your ticket. You aren't limited to just two games, either - you can add more games, and your greater risk is rewarded by a greater monetary return. Some books also have a super teaser that allows you even more points (often seven or more) at a lower payoff.
Teasers slash points off of a favorite's point spread and add a further cushion to underdog's, so they sound like a gift to bettors, don't they? Wrong. So, so wrong. The problem is the house edge that you are sacrificing. A house edge is a fact of life in sports betting (unless you have a lot of degenerate friends you can wager with), but smart bettors look to minimize that edge in order to maximize their profit. Teasers certainly don't do that. The reason for this is fairly simple to see.
Let's look at a simple two team, 4.5-point teaser. That wager typically pays out at even money. Since you have to win both games in order to win the bet then, over the long term you have to pick 70.7 percent of games correctly in order to just break even. That's because .707 * .707 = .50, so if you pick 70.7 percent of games correctly then you will pick both right half of the time. The problem is that a shift in spreads of 4.5 points does not, over the long term, cause the favorites to cover more than 70.7 percent of their games, nor does it cause the underdogs to cover more than that mark. By making this bet over the long term then, you are willingly accepting a losing proposition. The situation doesn't improve as the points you add get bigger, either. A 5.5-point, two-team teaser typically pays 5-to-6. That means you have to win 73.9 percent of your games to break even. As is the case with parlays, the house edge also gets larger as you add more teams to your parlay.
NBA teasers are one of the few sports where these types of bets are utilized besides pro and college football. The most common points available in NBA teasers are 4, 4.5, and 5 with some books offering 7 points. You can apply these points on anywhere from 2 to 14 games with each bet you add the payout odds increasing.
Though NBA teasers are not profitable over the long run, it is not theoretically impossible that situations could exist where the bet could make sense. All you would need to do is figure out what the break-even point of the bet is and then find situations where the historical occurrence of an outcome comes at a higher rate than the breakeven rate. None come immediately to mind, but, for the sake of argument, let's say that you were to discover that teams favored by four win 85 percent of their games at home on nights when there is a lunar eclipse. If you were to find a night where the moon and the sun were aligned, and two teams were favored at home by four, then you would have a very worthwhile bet. With a good deal of handicapping work it is feasible that situations like that could be found in the NBA, much like the Wong teaser has been shown to be profitable in the NFL.
Despite the long-term inherent lack of profitability in the NBA teaser, there may be specific situations where a teaser could be attractive. Say, for example, that your handicapping has led you to identify two solid favorites that you like, but which you are lukewarm about. If both teams were favored by seven, and you figure that they will win by somewhere between five and eight points, then you won't feel confident betting on them on the point spread, but you also wouldn't feel confident betting on their opponents. You could confidently bet the moneyline, but the return would be low given the size of the spread. By using a four-point teaser you could adjust both point spreads down so that the spreads are below your predicted score. That might be the best way to confidently maximize profit potential given your suspected result.
Teasers aren't the best bet on the board by any means. That doesn't mean you shouldn't play them, though. Some people love the action and excitement of the wager. You just need to know what you are betting, and what it is costing you. If it still seems worthwhile then go for it.
Introduction
This page addresses betting on basketball, specifically the NBA. The figures in this pages are based on 6,567 historical games, from seasons beginning 2013 to 2017. It is assumed the reader knows basic sports betting terminology. If this is not the case, please visit my page on sports betting first.
Betting Against the Spread
On average, the home team wins 58.4% of the time and scores 2.70 more points than the road team. However, betting against the spread, I show road teams to be the much better value, as the following table shows. The table is based on laying 11 to win 10. The return column shows the expected percentage of money won (or lost when negative) to money bet. As you can see, betting home teams has a house edge of 6.22%, while road teams are only 2.70%.
Road or Home Team Against the Spread
| Side | Wins | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Road | 3,280 | 0.499467 | -0.026981 |
| Home | 3,159 | 0.481042 | -0.062157 |
| Push | 128 | 0.019491 | |
| Total | 6,567 | 1.000000 | -0.044569 |
The next table shows the results betting on underdogs and favorites against the spread. This does not include the 61 games where the point spread was zero. I was expecting underdogs to do significantly better, but the results proved me wrong — they did only slightly better. As you can see, the probability of the underdog winning was only 0.4% greater than favorites. The return shows the ratio of expected player win (negative indicates a loss) to money bet, assuming the player is laying 11 to win 10.
Underdog or Favorite Against the Spread
| Side | Wins | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | 3,176 | 0.488165 | -0.048375 |
| Underdog | 3,202 | 0.492161 | -0.040746 |
| Push | 128 | 0.019674 | |
| Total | 6,506 | 1.000000 | -0.044560 |
Overs and Unders
The following table shows how often each game went over, under, and fell exactly on the over/under line. The return column shows the ratio of player win to money bet, assuming laying 11 to win 10. Not surprisingly, the table shows betting the under side to be the slightly better value, with a probability of winning 0.21% higher than over bets.
Under or Over Against the Total
| Side | Wins | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 3,232 | 0.492158 | -0.051561 |
| Under | 3,246 | 0.494290 | -0.047084 |
| Push | 89 | 0.013553 | |
| Total | 6,567 | 1.000000 | -0.044839 |
Money Line
The following table shows the expected return on money line bets, assuming one unit is bet per game. The return shows that betting road teams is the better value, with an expected return 0.53% higher.
Money Line by Side
| Side | Total Bet | Total Return | Expected Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6,567 | 6,288.75 | -0.042371 |
| Road | 6,567 | 6,323.26 | -0.037115 |
| Total | 13,134 | 12,612.01 | -0.037115 |
The next table shows the expected return on money line bets, cut by whether the team is the underdog, favorite, or even. Surprisingly, to me at least, the table shows favorites to be the better value, with a return 0.46% higher.
Nba Teaser Odds
Money Line by Favorite/Underdog
| Side | Total Bet | Total Return | Expected Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | 6,506 | 6262.13 | -0.037483 |
| Underdog | 6,506 | 6232.14 | -0.042093 |
| Even | 122 | 117.74 | -0.034932 |
| Total | 13,134 | 12612.01 | -0.039743 |
The next table shows the actual and estimated probability of winning by point spread. The estimated probability uses logistic regression to smooth out the ups and downs.
Teaser Odds Chart
Probability of Winning by Point Spread
| Spread | Wins | Games | Actual Probability | Estimated Probability | Fair Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -15.5 | 26 | 24 | 0.923077 | 0.922718 | -1194 |
| -15 | 40 | 39 | 0.975000 | 0.916818 | -1102 |
| -14.5 | 44 | 38 | 0.863636 | 0.910510 | -1017 |
| -14 | 49 | 44 | 0.897959 | 0.903774 | -939 |
| -13.5 | 76 | 70 | 0.921053 | 0.896589 | -867 |
| -13 | 69 | 64 | 0.927536 | 0.888933 | -800 |
| -12.5 | 88 | 80 | 0.909091 | 0.880786 | -739 |
| -12 | 102 | 87 | 0.852941 | 0.872127 | -682 |
| -11.5 | 125 | 109 | 0.872000 | 0.862937 | -630 |
| -11 | 130 | 112 | 0.861538 | 0.853198 | -581 |
| -10.5 | 135 | 113 | 0.837037 | 0.842893 | -537 |
| -10 | 168 | 132 | 0.785714 | 0.832006 | -495 |
| -9.5 | 174 | 138 | 0.793103 | 0.820527 | -457 |
| -9 | 231 | 191 | 0.826840 | 0.808443 | -422 |
| -8.5 | 206 | 154 | 0.747573 | 0.795748 | -390 |
| -8 | 248 | 193 | 0.778226 | 0.782438 | -360 |
| -7.5 | 273 | 194 | 0.710623 | 0.768513 | -332 |
| -7 | 269 | 186 | 0.691450 | 0.753978 | -306 |
| -6.5 | 314 | 227 | 0.722930 | 0.738839 | -283 |
| -6 | 337 | 237 | 0.703264 | 0.723112 | -261 |
| -5.5 | 336 | 209 | 0.622024 | 0.706812 | -241 |
| -5 | 358 | 245 | 0.684358 | 0.689965 | -223 |
| -4.5 | 348 | 224 | 0.643678 | 0.672599 | -205 |
| -4 | 344 | 205 | 0.595930 | 0.654746 | -190 |
| -3.5 | 328 | 186 | 0.567073 | 0.636446 | -175 |
| -3 | 349 | 195 | 0.558739 | 0.617742 | -162 |
| -2.5 | 340 | 199 | 0.585294 | 0.598683 | -149 |
| -2 | 367 | 206 | 0.561308 | 0.579320 | -138 |
| -1.5 | 283 | 157 | 0.554770 | 0.559710 | -127 |
| -1 | 254 | 135 | 0.531496 | 0.539913 | -117 |
| 1 | 254 | 119 | 0.468504 | 0.460087 | 117 |
| 1.5 | 283 | 126 | 0.445230 | 0.440290 | 127 |
| 2 | 367 | 161 | 0.438692 | 0.420680 | 138 |
| 2.5 | 340 | 141 | 0.414706 | 0.401317 | 149 |
| 3 | 349 | 154 | 0.441261 | 0.382258 | 162 |
| 3.5 | 328 | 142 | 0.432927 | 0.363554 | 175 |
| 4 | 344 | 139 | 0.404070 | 0.345254 | 190 |
| 4.5 | 347 | 124 | 0.357349 | 0.327401 | 205 |
| 5 | 358 | 113 | 0.315642 | 0.310035 | 223 |
| 5.5 | 336 | 127 | 0.377976 | 0.293188 | 241 |
| 6 | 337 | 100 | 0.296736 | 0.276888 | 261 |
| 6.5 | 314 | 87 | 0.277070 | 0.261161 | 283 |
| 7 | 269 | 83 | 0.308550 | 0.246022 | 306 |
| 7.5 | 273 | 79 | 0.289377 | 0.231487 | 332 |
| 8 | 248 | 55 | 0.221774 | 0.217562 | 360 |
| 8.5 | 206 | 52 | 0.252427 | 0.204252 | 390 |
| 9 | 231 | 40 | 0.173160 | 0.191557 | 422 |
| 9.5 | 174 | 36 | 0.206897 | 0.179473 | 457 |
| 10 | 168 | 36 | 0.214286 | 0.167994 | 495 |
| 10.5 | 135 | 22 | 0.162963 | 0.157107 | 537 |
| 11 | 130 | 18 | 0.138462 | 0.146802 | 581 |
| 11.5 | 125 | 16 | 0.128000 | 0.137063 | 630 |
| 12 | 102 | 15 | 0.147059 | 0.127873 | 682 |
| 12.5 | 88 | 8 | 0.090909 | 0.119214 | 739 |
| 13 | 69 | 5 | 0.072464 | 0.111067 | 800 |
| 13.5 | 76 | 6 | 0.078947 | 0.103411 | 867 |
| 14 | 49 | 5 | 0.102041 | 0.096226 | 939 |
| 14.5 | 44 | 6 | 0.136364 | 0.089490 | 1017 |
| 15 | 40 | 1 | 0.025000 | 0.083182 | 1102 |
| 15.5 | 26 | 2 | 0.076923 | 0.077282 | 1194 |
Nba Teaser Parlay Odds
In the unlikely event you encounter a point spread with an absolute value greater than 15.5, then the probability of winning can be estimated as e^(-0.16*s)/(1+e^(-0.16*s)), where s is the point spread.
Internal Links
When I updated this page in 2018, there were a lot of obscure tables I was too lazy to update. However, I put too much effort into them at the time I made them to just throw them away. So, I split this off to Obscure Topics in Betting the NBA.
Written by: Michael Shackleford