Sports Betting Stats

  

Sports betting analytics

Sports Predictors. Predictem.com Check this site out for tons of free sports picks against the point spread and betting advice from their team of prognosticators! OddsShark.com Betting.

Find not just odds and stats, but in-depth information, live updates, weather reports, injuries, ATS, matchup info and more, to help you bring your betting skills to new heights. OddsTrader is a free service dedicated to helping sports fans beat the books, so sign up for an account today. Poisson distribution is a predictive method typically used in soccer or hockey betting, or for NFL prop bets based on things like sacks. Basically, anything in sports where stats are counted in increments of one and scoring is relatively rare.

Sports betting model is a method, that helps you to project your own (winning percentages) odds before you bet, by using sports betting analytics. It is a very important part of the betting system that helps you finding a team’s probabilities more accurately than a bookmaker/betting market. It helps you to find the value that most other bettors wouldn’t find.

For most people, this is a very difficult task. It takes a lot of time, research, knowledge, testing, and even sleepless nights. But once you establish a successful betting model, it can give you the edge and show you opportunities that the general betting public would never consider.

I can not imagine betting without a betting model, where I get projected numbers that can be compared with the bookmakers’ numbers (my projected odds/lines vs bookmakers lines).

Sports

Why betting model is so important?

Sports betting has changed over the years. The sports betting market is sharper, bookmakers are sharper and the numbers are more and more important. And the real difference between sports betting, which is a financial market and pure sports are numbers. Without numbers, there is no sports betting. This is where betting models step in…

What is the key to winning at sports betting?

The key to winning in sports betting is betting on the value (+EV bets). So if the bookmaker’s odds are 1.91 (-110) vs 1.91 (-110) on a particular event, that means that they give both teams 50% of the chance.

Sports Betting Stats Nfl

The goal of every sports betting model is to calculate (independently) probabilities of these outcomes and then comparing with bookmakers’ odds.

If in this case, my betting model estimates true probabilities for this event, that one team will have 60% of chance instead of 50%, then this can be a +EV bet on the odds of 1.91 (-110). On 100 bets, the betting record would be 60 wins and 40 losses, profit: +14.6 units.

Sports Betting Algorithm

The heart of every betting model is the algorithm. The combination of the right statistical methods, formulas, functions, and statistics (usually advanced statistics) is the key.

All other things, like visual aspects of the model, the colors, copy/pasting, or scrapping the data from the internet are just the details that can be improved anytime and can make our betting life easier. But without a good algorithm, everything else just falls into the water.

How to build a sports betting model?

Creating a betting system that is based on algorithms and probabilistic methods is usually a hard task for most bettors, who just love the sport. But with the right steps and the right focus, it can be done even with the simplest tools like excel or Google Sheets.

  • Research the leagues or sports that you want to analyze. Remember that you are not choosing a sport to watch, but the market to invest.
  • Specify what problem you want to solve
  • Choose the tool or programming language based on your knowledge, where you will build a model. The simplest tool for an average bettor, where we still make amazing things are excel and google spreadsheets. Or you go with advanced like python.
  • Accumulate significant data and analyze it
  • Choose a statistical method
  • Create a model in your tool or program (betting software)
  • Test the betting model and track results

Excluding emotions and stick to betting algorithms and well-defined betting systems

Many sports bettors make two big mistakes that lead to a big disappointment sooner or later:

  • They emotionally decide which sports they will bet
  • They make betting decisions based on intuition and gut feelings. Not based on numbers or +EV.

The intuition can not be measured and can not be tracked. Feelings change every day and this affects our decisions. This is why well-defined sports betting models are crucial because help us to make rational decisions and track performance.

Sports Betting Stats Database

List of My Private Sports Betting Models

My whole work is devoted to helping an average sports bettor to win at sports betting by using the numbers and building models in betting spreadsheets.

It all started with the MLB betting model, which is my main market to bet. But later I also created different betting models to show that even the average bettor can understand the numbers and use simple betting models in google sheets or excel.

The fact is that in the long run, only value bets will lead to a profit. And the value is simply the difference between bookmakers’ odds and true (projected) odds. Best betting models can answer these questions.

Table of contest
  • MLB Betting Model
  • Basketball Betting Model
  • NBA Betting Model
  • NHL Betting Model
  • CSGO esports Betting Model
  • NFL Betting Model
  • CBB Betting Model
  • Soccer Betting Model

MLB BETTING MODEL

Key Features:

  • Ability to project your odds (US and Decimal) before bookmakers
  • The model uses free available advanced stats
  • Access to my private betting model, that you can use right away
  • Betting Model performance = More than
  • Edge against the market with best MLB plays: Beating the line 70% of times with positive closing line value.
  • Contact me for more info: mb@underdogchance.com

BASKETBALL BETTING MODEL

Key Features:

  • Ability to project your spreads and totals for any basketball league you want
  • The model uses free available stats
  • Access to my private betting model, that you can use right away
  • I have created and tested on almost every single league with profitable overall results on more than 2000+ bets. The best leagues: SPA A, CHN, GER, ABA,…
  • Contact me for more info: mb@underdogchance.com

NBA BETTING MODEL

Key Features:

  • Ability to project your spreads and totals before bookmakers
  • The model uses free available advanced stats
  • Access to my private betting model, that you can use right away
  • Contact me for more info: mb@underdogchance.com

NHL BETTING MODEL

Key Features:

  • Ability to project your odds (US and Decimal) before bookmakers
  • The model uses free available advanced stats
  • Access to my private betting model, that you can use right away
  • Upgraded betting model with all lineups, that you can update every day
  • Contact me for more info: mb@underdogchance.com

CSGO ESPORTS BETTING MODEL

Key Features:

  • Ability to project your odds (US and Decimal) before bookmakers
  • The model uses free available stats and is based on lineups
  • Access to my private betting model, that you can use right away
  • Upgraded betting model with all lineups, that you can update every day
  • Contact me for more info: mb@underdogchance.com

NFL BETTING MODEL

Key Features:

  • Ability to project your spreads and totals before bookmakers
  • The model uses free available advanced stats
  • Access to my private betting model, that you can use right away
  • Contact me for more info: mb@underdogchance.com

CBB BETTING MODEL

Key Features:

  • Ability to project your spreads and totals before bookmakers
  • The model uses free available advanced stats
  • Access to my private betting model, that you can use right away
  • Contact me for more info: mb@underdogchance.com

SOCCER BETTING MODEL

Key Features:

  • Ability to project your odds and expected goals
  • The model uses free available soccer stats
  • Access to my private betting model, that you can use right away
  • I have created it for Bundesliga 2 as an example, but you can create for any league after watching videos in the course
  • Contact me for more info: mb@underdogchance.com

What you’ve put together here with the NHL, the NBA, is awesome! I enjoy inputting lineups… I’m finding not to be lazy about them because its makes a difference in the lines. I’m especially excited what you have for College BB… I would think that would be a difficult task. But what you’re doing lately , I have all the faith. Way to Go MB…. I’m in the right place with you!

BOTBetting Course Member

Your course isblowing my mind and i don’t regret to be part of it! You opened my eyes about the world of sports betting and now i look different about everything! I think that I’m on a good way from a sheep to a smart sheep and then I will end as a wolf! I want to thank you for all your work and effort you putted in those videos and those formulas! I‘m stunned and i didn’t even started with the videos about NHL yet!

MartinBetting Course Member

My Private Betting spreadsheets to download

Every sports betting model, that I have created for myself or to help sports handicappers is available as a betting spreadsheet download for A Journey members (learn more about betting spreadsheets and membership in this video)

Why my models are different?

  • Simple – All my models were created in Google Spreadsheet with simple functions and simple formulas. The main idea from the start is to help an average bettor to become an independent sports handicapper without following or paying other people’s picks.
  • Free tools and free stats – All models are created in free google spreadsheets (you only need a free google account) and we always “operate” with free stats taken from the internet
  • My private models – There are handicappers that share projections, there are probably also some that will show you how to build a model, but nobody is willing to share their private betting models, that they use for themselves. Are my private models are available to download
  • Profitable results – Everything I do I share publicly and I don’t just share some formulas, but I also show how I use them in real-time. I focus on profit and beating the closing lines.
  • Upgrading all the time – From time to time we need to upgrade models because bookmakers are too smart and they hire the best experts. I constantly upgrade models and share them with our members.
  • No emotions – the betting model helps us make rational decisions, that are based on numbers and facts. It is one of the most important things when it comes to sports betting.
    I accept Terms and Conditions

Sports Betting Stats Canada

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Based on the size of the global sports betting market, it’s no surprise that there are tons of sites offering databases and trend analysis for sports betting. Some sites provide their raw data for free. Others charge for their databases and provide exclusive commentary and proprietary analytic tools.

By combing through past sporting events and familiarizing yourself with different trends, you can gain invaluable insight into predicting the future and become highly successful sports bettor.

What Is the Best Free Sports Stats Database?

SBD Sharp

You’ll have to excuse us for including our own product on this list, but we wouldn’t have created this tool if we didn’t think it offered massive benefits to bettors. SBD Sharp looks at sports statistics a bit differently, tracking teams over time to determine their standing value as investments and to help you predict how they’ll perform in specific scenarios.

SBD Sharp will help you identify which teams offer the greatest return on investment as moneyline, point spread, or totals bets. You can look back at each team’s past records to see how much money you could have made betting on every individual game or the season as a whole.

Sharp tells you not only which games each team has won or lost. It tells you when you would have profited betting on them, and how much you would have made. It’s a betting trend analysis tool, and it’s an ideal solution for those who want to track sports bets and teams as investments over time.

You can choose from a number of formats to display the data, and filter the results by the following criteria to show you the best teams to bet on: at home, when away, as favorite, as underdog, as home favorite, as home underdog, as road favorite, and as away favorite. Handicapping is all about finding statistics and information that tells you how a team is likely to perform in very specific situations.

Evaluating these trends over the course of a season is a great way to predict what’s likely to happen the next time your team faces similar conditions.

FiveThirtyEight

Some of the sharpest statisticians in the industry work at FiveThirtyEight. Nate Silver (who has appeared on Time Magazine’s’ Top 100 Most Influential People in the World issue) started FiveThirtyEight to write on, analyze, and predict NBA games with an advanced form of statistical analysis by the name of sabermetrics. Nate Silver’s brainchild has applied world-class statistical methodology to predict the future of everything from federal elections to the winner of the Super Bowl.

Not only does FiveThirtyEight make all of their data publically available (thanks for their firm belief in transparency), but they offer a predictive model for both the NBA and the NFL. They employ two different systems: “ELO” and “CARMELO” rankings.

Nate Silver describes them as follows:

“Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent, while our CARMELO projections estimate a player’s future performance based on the trajectory of other, similar NBA players.”

Nate Silver created the CARM-Elo model with a combination of both the ELO ratings and CARMELO projections. As a forecast model, the CARM-Elo system projects results based on a team’s roster, as well as historical game results. The CARM-Elo model is predicated on over 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, and it takes fatigue, home courts in higher altitudes, even distance traveled to games into account. Additionally, when it comes to predicting the playoffs, the CARM-Elo model also gives a small bonus to teams with significant playoff experience.

This is a great model and one that we recommend integrating into your sports bets. Correct more often than not, it’s also free, simple, and efficient. Plus, few have ever found a way make data more aesthetically appealing and exciting than the fine folks at FiveThirtyEight.

Sports Betting Stats Nba

What Is the Best Subscription-Based Sports Stats Database?

Killer Sports

Killer Sports is free (although you can purchase other people’s trends on the platform), and in our opinion, it’s one of the best available databases to sports bettors. In the past, the only people who had access to the same extensive data either worked at conglomerates like ESPN or paid thousands of dollars for programs that had to be updated every day.

Now, Killer Sports offers its patented SDQL (Sports Data Query Language) to anyone who subscribes to their services. It is undoubtedly the most comprehensive database available to the public.

What makes Killer Sports SDQL database so revolutionary? It allows users a unique opportunity to build and save their own trends, access team comparison tables, and access statistics that no other database currently offers their subscribers. The possibilities of what you can with Killer Sports data are limitless.

With their weekly reports on new emerging trends in their SDQL database, it’s impossible not to see why Killer Sports is a favorite of “sharps” everywhere.

Which Sports Stats Service Should I Choose?

If you’re just starting out, we advocate sticking with the free services. Once you start developing your identity as a sports bettor and get accustomed to the nuances of sports betting a subscription service will help you gain a valuable edge over your sportsbook.